What I'm Worried About

Three weeks until Skyline. Here are the things that I think pose the greatest risk to my finishing:

Going out too fast

This one seems like a no-brainer, but in all the excitement of a race it's hard to not go out faster than your ability proscribes. You're in good shape, you're running at a pace substantially slower than you would run say, a 10K, you can't imagine that such a slow pace could possibly tire you. That's on mile 5 or so. By mile 14 you start to think that maybe it wasn't such a good idea going out so fast. At mile 18 you're cursing yourself, and at mile 20 you completely bonk, as in moving-faster-than-a-slow-walk-is-no-longer-possible bonk. That's happened to me before. It takes experience and/or discipline to stick to a realistic pace in the beginning. As this is a new distance for me (especially on dirt), I'm lacking in experience and will have to rely on discipline.

Fortunately there are a few things to help me out. In my armchair recon of the course I’ve learned that the first three miles are flat on pavement, and that every quarter-mile is marked. That will help me dial in my target pace early, and stay there hopefully until I get into a good groove. Also, in my previously pace-finding exercise (see my “How Fast” entry), I figured out that I should be targeting about an 8:30 pace over the first six miles. That includes some smaller hills, so I should be targeting a bit faster than that on the flats. But I’m going to hedge a bit, just to be safe, and go out at an 8:30 pace, maybe even 8:40. That’s about 2:08 or 2:10 per quarter-mile.

Lastly, I’m going to do my track warm-ups from now on out at precisely 8:30 so I get a good feel for the speed.

Heat

The average high in Castro Valley is 76 degrees in August. The 10 day forecast, which goes out to July 21 also shows a high of 76 degrees. If that holds I think it's pretty manageable. More than a few degrees hotter than this though and I could be in trouble.

I need to keep my eyes on the weather. If it's going to be a scorcher I'll lower my target pace by an average of a full minute-per-mile. I will run with two bottles all day instead of one in for the first half and wait-and-see for the second. Also, I've been trying to get some hot training days in, and days with an extra layer on to simulate more heat.

Injuries

Either now or before the race. I'm most worried about rolling an ankle during the race, or breaking a fall with my face or something. Neither one of those things has happened to me in a long time, so as long as I stay alert I think I'll be okay. As for getting injured training I think all you can do is listen to your body, make sure you're lifting safely, and don't be scared to take a rest day.

Digestive rebellion

I've heard this happens sometimes, though usually on longer races. I've continued my one gel every twenty minutes regimen for longer training runs, and that still seems to be treating me okay. We'll see if the same holds true with the sixteen-plus I plan to eat during the race. If I do start to get nauseous, my reaction will depend on how far into the race I am. In the last three miles you just suck it up. In the last fifteen miles, you spend some extra time at the aid stations trying to pick some things that you think you can hold down, and slowing your pace in hopes of recovery.

Destroyed quads

I would have ranked this higher a few weeks ago, but I've been working some downhill training in this past week and I think it will really help. I'm confident that if this happens it will be in the second half and I'll just need to walk all of the hills from there on out.

Blisters

Haven't really had a problem with this lately. I wear double-layer socks and put body glide between my toes. I don't have much experience with fixing blisters once you get them... I'm just going to put some duct tape and extra body-glide, neosporin and a needle in my bag. I've usually been able to run through minor blisters in the past.

That's about it I guess. There's always the chance of some freak incident, but you can't really plan for those anyway.